One Client Risk Check: what if your biggest client left?

One client pays most of the bills, and when they pay late, or go quiet, the whole month wobbles. Put in your own numbers to see how much of your income rests on them, the gap they would leave, and how long your cash would cover it. Free, and no signup needed.

Is this you?

If two or more sound familiar, one client is probably carrying more of your business than is safe. The check below puts a number on it.

These boxes are filled in with an example business, not a real one. Replace each number with your own.

A full year is better. It smooths out one-off big months.
Rent, wages, suppliers, software, loan repayments and what you pay yourself.
Used only to size the first action below.
Biggest client's share of your income0%
Monthly income from them$0
Monthly income without them$0
Monthly shortfall against outgoings if they left$0
Months your cash covers that shortfall0
Top two clients' shareNot entered

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A planning check built only from the numbers you enter. It assumes your outgoings stay the same if the client leaves, which is the cautious reading. Treat it as a guide, not a forecast, and not financial advice.

Why one client ends up carrying the business

Nobody plans it. A good client sends more work, the work is steady, and saying yes to them is easier than finding someone new. Over a year or two they grow from one client among many to the one that pays the rent. It feels like security, so there is little pressure to change anything.

None of this means a big client is a bad client. Most are good ones. The risk is not the client, it is having no plan for the day they pay late, cut back or leave.

From our invoice data: In 45% of small businesses, one client accounts for half or more of a year's billing (58 businesses).

Source: Billbooks invoice data, 8,483 invoices from 112 small businesses, September 2024 to September 2026 (aggregate only, figures shown only where 25+ businesses contribute). See the invoice payment study

What it costs if nothing changes

Most of the cost arrives quietly, long before anyone leaves. When one client pays late, you cannot pay your own suppliers on time, so their delay becomes yours. You accept rush work and thinner prices because turning them down feels too risky. Then there is the day it does end: a new manager, a merger, a budget cut, or the work moving in house. The income drops at once, while rent, wages and software carry on at the old level. If you ever want to sell the business, a buyer will ask about it too, because a business that rests on one client is worth less to someone else.

How this check works

Yearly figures are divided by 12 so everything is compared month by month. The check then asks one question: if the biggest client stopped tomorrow and nothing else changed, what would be left?

Share = biggest client's billing / all billing Monthly income without them = all billing per month - their billing per month Monthly shortfall = monthly outgoings - income without them (0 if income still covers outgoings) Months of cover = cash in the bank / monthly shortfall New billing needed = their billing per month / chosen share - all billing per month

The bands are a rule of thumb, not an accounting standard: under 25% is low exposure, 25% to 49% is worth watching, and 50% or more means one client is carrying the business. A business with long contracts and a notice period can live with a higher share than one that works job to job.

The check is cautious on purpose. When a client leaves, some costs usually go with them, such as materials or a subcontractor you only used for their work. If that applies to you, take those costs out of monthly outgoings and run it again.

What to do this month, with what you already have

Know the number

List last year's billing by client, largest first. It takes one export or one evening with your invoices, and it tells you exactly how exposed you are.

Put a notice period in writing

A clause asking for 30, 60 or 90 days' notice to end the work turns a sudden loss into a planned one. Raise it at the next renewal or price review.

Build a reserve from their payments

Set aside a fixed slice of every payment from your biggest client until your cash would cover the shortfall for several months.

Grow the smaller clients first

Your second and third biggest clients already trust you. Asking what else they need is the quickest route to new billing, faster than finding strangers.

If your biggest client has already left

How to stop it recurring

The fix is a habit rather than a single decision: look at your billing by client every quarter, set a share at which you start actively looking for new work, put a notice period in every ongoing agreement, and keep a cash reserve sized to the gap your biggest client would leave. A spreadsheet is enough to do all of it. If you invoice in Billbooks, its invoices report filters by client and date range, so the figures for this check take a couple of minutes.

Next: see how long your cash lasts.

Put in what you have and what you spend each month to see your runway, with or without that client's income.

Work out your cash runway

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Does that big client also pay late? The late payment cost calculator puts a yearly figure on it. Busy, but the bank balance still sinks? Try the cash gap check.

FAQs

There is no official limit. A common rule of thumb is that under 25% from one client is low exposure, 25% to 49% is worth watching, and 50% or more means one client is carrying the business. What matters most is whether you could cover the gap if they left, which is what this check works out.

Because the risk is not only non-payment. A single late payment, a budget cut or a change of manager can leave a gap you have to cover from cash. A large share also makes it harder to say no to rush work or lower prices.

A full year where you have it. One month can be skewed by a single large job. If you use a month, pick a typical one rather than your best or worst. Monthly outgoings are always per month, whichever you choose.

Take those costs out of monthly outgoings and run the check again. The check assumes your costs stay the same, which is the cautious reading, because rent, wages and most software do not stop when a client does.

Keep serving them well and grow everything else. Win more work from your smaller clients, set aside time each week to find new ones, and build a cash reserve from their payments. Their share falls as the rest of the business grows, with no need to turn their work away.

Yes. It is completely free, with no signup. Your numbers stay in your browser unless you choose to email the result to yourself.

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